A tale of contrasting seasons

"For my client base, it is a tale of two opposites," Mr Knell said.

"Those in the east, Lake King, Hyden, Corrigin, they've already had good rain, whereas western areas around Narrogin are bone dry.

"My advice is very different for both areas."

Mr Knell, who is a director at ConsultAg, said the areas north-east of Narrogin have already had two rain events in 2024 and were focused on weed management.

"Out there some have had over 100 millimetres of rain," he said.

"I think Hyden had 180mm total last year and they've got 100mm in the bank already.

"If nothing else they've had a germination of weeds which is being knocked down and paddocks are in good nick, looking really good, plenty of potential.

"Those growers don't need a lot of rain in April to have a fantastic start to the year."

Mr Knell said those growers would have to play the waiting game for soil to dry out to start dry seeding, "or if they get another rain event they will wet seed".

"By the time April comes around some paddocks will still be too wet to dry seed and some be too dry to wet seed," he said.

"But they've got moisture in the bank which is a really good buffer and the farm dams are full, which is a bonus.

"They will be looking at maximising their early sowing opportunity crops, if they get another rain they'll have a lot of canola in, and a reasonable amount of oats - any of those crops that can be planted early."

The same can't be said for those in Narrogin and surrounding areas, however Mr Knell said it wasn't a reason to be alarmed yet.

"The western areas around Narrogin haven't had any decent rain since September last year," he said.

"Here in Narrogin, Williams etc we're a proper Mediterranean climate, so essentially we shouldn't get summer rain, but it's nice when we do."

Mr Knell said it was more concerning for sheep farmers.

"It's tough for the sheep guys because they had such hot weather earlier this year, lots of temps in the 40s and hot winds," he said.

"That caused high evaporation, so their dams haven't lasted as long, and without the spring flush for sheep feed, that runs out quicker too."

Mr Knell said it was important for his western clients to remember it was only March.

"I've had clients ringing, asking if they should change their program," he said.

"I say it's March, it's not meant to rain in March, really all is normal in the western area, but they're feeling a bit nervous because the soil is so dry."

He believes farmers will set a date and stick to it.

"People will start just before, or just after, Easter, whether there is rain or not," Mr Knell said.

There are no major shifts in seeding programs this year, however he said there was a lot of interest in oats which yielded good prices last year, and hay demand remained consistent.

"The obvious thing is that last year's high oats price is no predictor for next year's coming price," he said.

"So there is a concern of oversupply, everyone wants a half decent price for oats.

"The growers who grow hay are maintaining the area of hay - there's still plenty of interest with the regular hay growers.

"As for wheat, barley, lupins - those areas are pretty similar, growers will follow similar plans to the previous year."