The winter crop harvest is winding down across much of Europe, despite the challenges presented by weather extremes that have hampered field activities in several countries - and played havoc with crop quality.
Harvest rains and quality issues have been observed across most of France, the western parts of Germany and large parts of Poland.
The wet weather extended further west into Belarus, and south as far as northern Italy. But the impact on crop quality was not as drastic.
In the north of the continent, a hotter than usual July in Sweden, the Baltic states and Finland affected grain filling of spring and winter cereal crops, as soil moisture ran out early.
According to last week's European Commission (EC) crop update, soft wheat production is forecast at 127.2 million tonnes, which was down from 127.7 million tonnes in July.
This was on the back of a slight reduction in yield from an average of 6.05 tonnes per hectare to 5.98t/ha.
But this yield is still 7.9 per cent above the 2020 harvest figure of 5.54t/ha and 5.1pc above the five-year average of 5.69t/ha.
Despite the production downgrade, the EC maintained its European Union wheat export outlook at 30 million tonnes for the 2021-22 marketing year, which started on July 1.
On the oilseed front, the EC reduced 2021-22 canola import projections by 5pc - from 6 million tonnes to 5.7 million tonnes, even though its European Union production forecast remained unchanged at 16.9 million tonnes.
Conversely, the production estimate for winter and spring barley collectively was increased slightly from 52.6 million tonnes to 52.9 million tonnes.
The forecast yield jumped from an average of 4.96t/ha to 4.99t/ha, which was 4.4pc above the five-year average of 4.78t/ha, but only 2pc above last year's yield of 4.89t/ha.
French farmers have almost finished this year's wheat harvest.
But it is running two weeks behind the pace of the 2020 edition, and 11 days behind the five-year average.
Last Friday, farm office France AgriMer pegged the soft wheat harvest at 96pc complete as of August 23.
This was up from 91pc a week earlier after a two-week hot spell allowed fieldwork to pick up following the rain disruptions earlier in the program.
Agriculture consultant Agritel has dropped its French wheat production estimate below 35 million tonnes, following a survey conducted among French farmers.
Agritel is now calling the crop at 34.93 million tonnes, which is down from 37.9 million tonnes following its July survey.
The harvest rains have drastically affected grain quality, with test weight taking a hit.
As a result, the average yield expectations have dropped from 7.6t/ha to 7.07t/ha.
Test weight measures grain density and is a critical determinant of quality suitable for the milling industry.
Most millers require a minimum of 76 kilograms/hectolitre, and stock feed consumers tend to request a minimum of 72kg/hl - or even as low as 70kg/hl.
This suggests that French exporters may struggle to meet the quality of their long-term buyers in north Africa, with stockfeed buyers in the Middle East and Asia likely alternatives.
The winter barley harvest in France has long concluded.
But the spring version is lagging the long-term average on account of the wet weather.
FranceAgriMer last week called the spring barley harvest as 97pc complete, compared to 100pc a year earlier.
Reports suggest that the spring barley crop withstood the wet harvest conditions, quality remains satisfactory and there will be ample supplies to meet domestic malt demand.
According to the German agriculture ministry update last week, total wheat production in Germany is forecast to fall 3.36pc year-on-year to 21.37 million tonnes following the wet harvest.
Weather extremes punctuated the German season. A cold spring led into a hot, dry start to the summer.
When the harvest started, uninvited summer storms created delays and reduced crop quality.
Nonetheless, the quality issue is not as bad as in France.
German wheat is likely to replace French supplies into overseas markets, including the major customer - Algeria.
The poor harvest weather has also impacted on canola yields.
Production is now forecast to increase by only 0.2pc during 2020 to 3.52 million tonnes.
This is 11.3pc below the five-year average and compares to the agriculture ministry's upbeat May production forecast of 3.8 million tonnes.
On the other hand, barley production is bucking the trend.
Output is expected to be 2.2pc higher than last year at 9 million tonnes.
Wheat production in Poland has also taken a hit due to heavy rains during the harvest period.
According to local consultant and analyst Sparks Polska, the country's wheat production forecast is now 11.9 million tonnes.
This is down from its July estimate of 12.1 million tonnes, and just below last year's mark of 12 million tonnes.
In Belarus, the government has imposed a six-month grain export ban following a poor, and weather-interrupted, harvest.
The ban will be valid for six months and applies to the export of wheat and meslin, rye, barley, oats, corn, buckwheat, millet, triticale, other cereals and canola outside the Republic of Belarus.
The country has completed its 2021 harvest, delivering 6.2 million tonnes of grain. This is a 14pc reduction on the 7.2 million tonnes reaped in 2020.
The European Union Black Sea states of Romania and Bulgaria have bagged bumper wheat crops this year.
This is a big turnaround from their poor showing in 2020.
Romania has harvested a record 11.4 million tonnes, which is more than 78pc higher than the 6.4 million tonnes reaped in 2020.
A highly favourable growing season delivered a record yield of 5.34t/ha, which is more than 11pc higher than the previous record of 4.8t/ha.
The Romanian barley crop was also a bumper at 1.9 million tonnes, which is 73pc higher year-on-year.
The wheat harvest in Bulgaria was 98.7pc complete as of early last week, and the local farmers had bagged 7.1 million tonnes.
This was 51pc higher than a year earlier.
The average wheat yields have averaged more than 6t/ha, which was a welcome improvement on the drought-affected 4t/ha produced from a much lower harvested area in 2020.
Bulgaria's barley crop has also recovered from last year's debacle. It is up 25pc to 0.7 million tonnes this year.
It has certainly been an eventful harvest for the European farmer this year.
Wheat production may be higher than in 2020, but quality issues will present challenges for both domestic consumers and export supplies.
This is not unique to Europe.
The world has both a wheat production and protein wheat deficit to solve, particularly among the major exporting nations.
Some serious rationing will be required to balance the books.
But the global consumer has only just read the headlines.
Higher prices are here to stay for some time yet, it seems.
And the burden on Australian wheat production and exports in the next 12 months will be extremely high.
