More than 300,000 sheep were trucked across the Nullarbor Plain in the first three months of this year - the second highest first-quarter flows on record behind the 2020 season.
According to Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development (DPIRD) figures, 357,486 head - including 205,844 sheep and 151,642 lambs - were sent over east from January-March.
This is significantly higher than 195,473 head in the same time last year.
An Episode 3 analysis showed that west to east sheep transfers this year were running 250 per cent higher in average volumes per month, compared to the ten-year average for Q1.
According to the analysis, the strong volumes seen so far rival those during the same three-month period of 2021, when 349,122-head were transferred.
Episode 3 founder and market analyst Matt Dalgleish said these big volumes - which are only viable when the west and east price discount is wide enough to cover freight costs - highlight the strain facing WA sheep producers.
He said the looming concern was that the live export avenue for turnoff would soon be closed off until mid-September.
"Analysis of the spread between the western and eastern pricing has shown that since the moratorium began in 2018 the discount spread has deteriorated during the May to September period every year except 2020," Mr Dalgleish said.
"In 2020, it seemed the very strong demand for WA sheep and lamb over east helped keep the discount spread at fairly normal levels.
"However, in other years when the live export sector was not available as an outlet for WA farmers to turn-off due to the moratorium period, and the demand from the east wasn't so strong, the discount widened significantly between western and eastern prices."
Elders commercial sheep manager Wayne Peake said there had been demand and available processing space for lighter 20-24 kilogram mutton over east.
Mr Peake said, even with current high transport prices, it had been cost-effective for Eastern States' buyers to participate in the WA market.
He said it costs about $40 per head and $34/head to truck sheep into Victoria and South Australia respectively.
This works out to be about $9.50 per kilometre for a road train and $8 for a B-train.
"In the past couple of weeks those lighter mutton markets have opened," Mr Peake said.
"I know it costs a lot of money to move a store ewe into that condition.
"But I guarantee if farmers spent that extra $10 on feed to get the sheep strong enough to travel to those markets, they would receive a better return than what they are in the saleyards at present."
As reported in Farm Weekly last week, Eastern States' processors have been big buyers of WA sheep over the past three to four months.
Among those are South Australian based Thomas Foods International, which had trucked about 150,000-head across the border since January.
This included in excess of 100,000 head of mutton, 20,000 grainfed lambs, for which kill space could not be secured locally, and 20,000 store lambs.
Mr Peake said Victorian-based Midfield Meats had also been "very active" in the market for lighter hoggets at Muchea and Katanning saleyards, and onfarm, over the past five weeks.
He said the biggest problem the sheep industry now faced was trying to move 30-40kg lambs, which there were no specific orders for.
"The top end of those lambs, sitting at around the 38kg plus mark, would normally be sent into the airfreight order," Mr Peake said.
"However, conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran disrupted that supply chain last week, and resulted in fewer numbers being sent into market."
Mr Peake said there were several live sheep export shipments that hadn't occurred this season.
As a result of this, he said there was a large supply of 36kg Merino lambs in the system, which should have already left WA.
"We are 250,000 to 300,000 shippers down and realistically about 40pc of that would have been that lighter Merino wether lamb order," he said.
"These issues have created another backlog."
At the drought crisis meeting in Yornup last week (see story from page 5), farmers urged the WA Government to consider introducing a freight subsidy.
It was suggested this would open up the Eastern States' market and relieve pressure on the industry, with challenges turning off livestock locally, and feed and water supplies falling short.
Mr Peake said there was no interest for the lighter Merino wethers over east, despite a $20 price difference, because of the extra $35-40 that had to be paid for freight.
He said demand had also dropped back in recent weeks due to a lack of rainfall in parts of SA and western Victoria.
"The freight subsidy would need to be about $18-20 per head or to cover the costs of transport to Nundroo, which is three hours from the WA-SA border," Mr Peake said.
"If we can get a subsidy to Nundroo that would create another opportunity to offload stock into the Eastern States."
Nutrien Livestock stud and commercial sheep manager Tom Bowen said Eastern States' activity in the WA market had helped clear the oversupply of sheep.
Mr Bowen said without that market there would be a bigger number than what industry could ever hope to move.
He said that was not just in finished stock, but also the lighter mutton market, where there was no demand locally.
"It is the lighter mutton that we really need to move," Mr Bowen said.
"With the cost of production there is probably not much to be made on those 18-22 kilogram score ones.
"We are just chasing our tails the whole time and without market alternatives including the processors, live export and other graziers, we will never get ahead."
